Your current location： Home > News Information > Expert Forum

China's economy is strong in resilience, potential and vitality

source：Silk Road Dialogue Committee|Release time：2023-02-17|Number of views：

Bi Jiyao, Zhang Zheren, Li Wei

China Academy of Macroeconomics

In his New Year's message in 2003, President Xi Jinping pointed out: "Today's China is a vibrant China." Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, has united and led the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups in the country to write a new chapter in the two miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability, and have achieved a historic victory in the history of the development of the Chinese nation. Looking at today's China, the pilot free trade zones and Hainan free trade ports have flourished, coastal areas have actively innovated, the development of the central and western regions has accelerated, the revitalization of the Northeast is ready to go, and the border areas have rejuvenated and enriched the people. China's economy is resilient, has great potential and full vitality, and the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged. As long as we are confident and steady, we will definitely achieve our set goals.

Take solid steps in high-quality economic development

Entering the new era, under the scientific guidance of Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, China's economic and social development has made historic achievements and undergone historic changes, historically solved the problem of absolute poverty, built a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way as scheduled. Its economic strength, scientific and technological strength and comprehensive national strength have been significantly enhanced, and the balance, coordination and inclusiveness of development have been continuously improved.

The economic strength has achieved a historic leap. In the 10 years from 2012 to 2021, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 53.9 trillion yuan to 114.9 trillion yuan, more than doubled, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%, more than twice the world average growth rate over the same period, and its contribution rate to the world economic growth exceeded 30%. In comparison, it took the United States 17 years to achieve the same scale of growth in the same economic size. From 2012 to 2021, the average annual increase in urban employment in China exceeded 13 million, and the price increase was less than 3% for 10 consecutive years, realizing an optimized combination of reasonable growth, full employment and stable prices. In the face of the sudden COVID-19, China coordinated the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and became the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth in 2020. In 2021, the final verification of GDP growth was 8.4%, and in 2022, it withstood the downward pressure to achieve GDP growth of 3.0%, with the total economic volume reaching 121 trillion yuan. Thanks to the scientific and effective response, in the three years since the COVID-19, China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of 4.5%, which is far higher than the average annual growth rate of the world economy of about 1.8%, and also far higher than the average annual growth rate of the United States, the euro area, and Japan, and has maintained a leading position among the world's major economies.

Innovation-driven development and stubble expansion. Adhering to the core position of innovation in China's overall modernization drive, the whole society's investment in research and development has maintained a double-digit growth for seven consecutive years. In 2022, the total amount of investment has reached a new level of 3 trillion yuan, and the intensity of investment has jumped to a new height of 2.55%, surpassing France, the Netherlands and other innovative countries, and further approaching the average level of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. China's national strategic scientific and technological strength has increased significantly, the total number of research and development personnel has leapt to the top of the world, new breakthroughs have been made in key core technologies, strategic emerging industries have developed and expanded, and the comprehensive ranking of national innovation capacity has risen from 34th in 2012 to 11th in 2022, successfully entering the ranks of innovative countries.

Urban and rural regional development is more coordinated. Adhering to targeted poverty alleviation and fighting as hard as possible won the largest anti-poverty battle in human history. Deeply implement the regional coordinated development strategy, the regional major strategy, the main functional area strategy and the new urbanization strategy, and the urban-rural regional development is more coordinated. The economic growth of the central and western regions has been higher than that of the eastern regions for many consecutive years, and the distribution of major productive forces has been further optimized. The level and quality of urbanization have been steadily improved, and the urbanization rate of the national permanent population has increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 65.2% in 2022. A new step has been taken in the development of urban-rural integration.

Historic, transitional and overall changes have taken place in the protection of the ecological environment. The overall green transformation of economic and social development has been accelerated, the battle for pollution prevention and control has achieved remarkable results, the system of ecological civilization has been accelerated, and more than 30 relevant laws and regulations have been formulated and revised. The installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and solar power generation all ranks first in the world. China has become the country with the largest growth of forest resources and the largest area of artificial afforestation in the world. From 2012 to 2021, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 34.4%, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 26.4%, and the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption decreased from 68.5% to 56%. China's sky is bluer, mountains are greener, and water is clearer.

Open up and develop to open up new prospects. Actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system, promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind, and launch a series of major measures to deepen reform and expand openness. Build a global network of high standard free trade zones, accelerate the construction of pilot free trade zones and Hainan Free Trade Port, and jointly build the "the Belt and Road" with high quality to become a popular international public product and international cooperation platform. China is a major trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions, has signed 19 free trade agreements with 26 countries and regions, has set up 21 pilot free trade zones, and the negative list of foreign investment access has been significantly reduced. In 2022, China's total trade in goods exceeded 40 trillion yuan for the first time, maintaining the status of the world's largest trade in goods for six consecutive years; The amount of foreign capital actually used exceeds 1.2 trillion yuan, and foreign investment and foreign investment are among the top in the world; The China-Europe train reaches 204 cities in 24 countries in Europe, becoming a new link and channel for mutual benefit and win-win results.

People's wellbeing has improved significantly. From 2012 to 2022, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents nationwide increased from 16510 yuan to 36883 yuan, with more than 400 million middle-income groups. After deducting the price factor, the income growth of urban and rural residents is basically synchronized with the economic growth. Tourism, communication and online shopping have become daily consumption, and the people's anxieties and anxieties in the fields of medical care, education, housing and old-age care have been gradually solved. A social security system with distinctive Chinese characteristics, the largest scale in the world and complete functions has been built, and nearly 60 million sets of affordable housing and shantytowns have been constructed. The number of people covered by basic old-age care, unemployment and work-related injury social insurance has increased from 790 million in 2012 150 million and 190 million people rose to 1.04 billion, 230 million and 290 million in June 2022.

Constantly transform advantages and conditions into kinetic energy and vitality

At present, the world's unprecedented changes have accelerated their evolution. The epidemic in the 21st century has a far-reaching impact, and the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change. China's economy is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. The risk factors in some areas are rising. Economic and social development still faces many deep-seated contradictions and problems. However, we should see that the fundamentals of China's economy for long-term improvement have not changed, and the basic characteristics of sufficient potential, great resilience, strong vitality, large room for manoeuvre, and many policy tools have not changed. There are many advantages and conditions for continued development. As long as we maintain our strategic focus and unswervingly do our own things well, we will be able to transform our advantages and conditions into kinetic energy and vitality, and promote the "China" giant ship to chop the waves and achieve stability.

The centralized and unified leadership of the Party provides a fundamental guarantee. To govern a big party country like ours, without the authority and centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, and without the ideological unity and pace of the whole party and the whole country, nothing can be done. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Communist Party of China, mainly represented by Comrade Xi Jinping, have adhered to combining the basic principles of Marxism with China's specific reality and the excellent traditional culture of China, founded Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and promoted the historic achievements and development of the cause of the Party and the state. There has been a historic change. Practice has proved that the leadership of the Party is the fundamental and lifeblood of the Party and the country. It is the interests and destiny of the people of all ethnic groups in the country. Adhering to the authority and centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee is the greatest political, organizational and institutional advantage in China. Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, and under the scientific guidance of Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups will be able to overcome all difficulties and obstacles and create new great achievements with new great struggles.

Scientific top-level design provides the right guidance. A country with a large size and a large population to achieve long-term stable and sustainable development is a complex system project that must have scientific top-level design. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, has made scientific and complete strategic arrangements for the development of the cause of the Party and the state in the new era, put forward the realization of the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese modernization, and undertake the great struggle, great projects, great cause and great dreams. I want to clarify the overall layout of the "five-in-one" and the "four comprehensive" strategic layout, adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, and coordinate development and security. In terms of economic development, we creatively put forward a new stage of development, implement a new development concept, build a new development pattern, and promote high-quality development. The great changes in the new era prove that these top-level designs are in line with the laws of development and are pragmatic. Under the guidance of the top-level design of science, the giant ship China will definitely be able to cross the torrent beach and sail to a brighter future.

Strong material foundation provides strong support. China has the most complete and largest industrial system in the world, strong industrial organization capacity and industrial chain toughness, and complete infrastructure. The scale of manufacturing industry accounts for about 30% of the world; With a super-scale domestic demand market formed by more than 1.4 billion people, despite the impact of the epidemic, the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2022 will remain stable at about 44 trillion yuan, making it the second largest consumer market and the first largest online retail market in the world. This is a valuable strategic resource for China's economic development, and a strong guarantee and confidence to overcome risks and challenges. By organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening the supply-side structural reform, and promoting the convergence of the advantages of the industrial base and the super-scale market, we can promote the formation of a smooth and efficient domestic circulation of mutual promotion of supply and demand, production and marketing, and firmly grasp the initiative of development.

Deepening reform and opening up provides inexhaustible impetus. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have comprehensively deepened reform with great political courage, implemented a more proactive opening strategy, basically established a basic institutional framework in all fields, and accelerated the formation of an open pattern of interaction between land, home and abroad, and mutual aid between the east and the west. Social productivity and economic vitality have achieved an unprecedented leap.

Towards a better tomorrow

The decade of the new era is a decade in which China has further consolidated its foundation, planted its advantages and added vitality. China's development stands at a new and higher historical starting point. The 20th CPC National Congress has drawn a grand blueprint for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese path to modernization, and sounded the clarion call of the times for a new journey.

2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress, the key year to carry out the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the important year to lay the foundation for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year systematically deployed the economic work in 2023. At present, all departments around the country are making every effort to implement policies and take measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices, vigorously boost market confidence and actively expand domestic effective demand. With the comprehensive implementation of the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee, the implementation of the "combination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, scientific and technological, social and other policies" has become more detailed, the energy efficiency of new and old policies has been superimposed, and the positive impact of the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the potential for domestic consumption and investment demand will continue to be released, the endogenous impetus for economic growth will continue to strengthen, and the Chinese economy will continue to rebound and improve overall in 2023. Recently, many international institutions have lowered their expectations of world economic growth in 2023, and generally raised their forecasts of China's economic growth.

As long as we closely unite around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishments", enhance the "four consciousnesses", strengthen the "four self-confidences", achieve "two maintenance", fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, solidly promote Chinese-style modernization, adhere to the general tone of making progress while stabilization, fully implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better overall planning for development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, vigorously boost market confidence, and organically combine the implementation of the expansion of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, it will definitely promote the overall improvement and continuous improvement of economic operation，we have won new victories in the new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.