Accelerate the improvement of the quality of urbanization
of the agricultural transfer population
Director of the Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center of the National Development and Reform Commission
China is still in the stage of rapid urbanization. More rural residents will improve their income level by transferring employment and enjoy higher quality public services by turning to citizens. On the one hand, it will promote the continuous expansion of urban consumer groups, the continuous upgrading of consumption structure and the continuous release of consumption potential. On the other hand, it will also bring about urban infrastructure Huge investment demand for public service facilities and housing construction. Improving the citizenization quality of agricultural transfer population and further giving play to the role of domestic demand as the basic driving force of economic development is not only the objective need to deal with external risks and challenges and stabilize China's economic fundamentals, but also the inevitable requirement to meet the people's growing needs for a better life, but also an important measure to speed up the construction of a new development pattern.
Data show that from 2012 to 2020, China's urban resident population increased from 710 million to 900 million, with an average annual increase of 21 million. In the same period, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased from 21 trillion yuan to 39 trillion yuan, and the investment in fixed assets increased from 37 trillion yuan to 52 trillion yuan. For every 1 percentage point increase in the urbanization rate, the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by about 1.7 trillion yuan, and the investment in fixed assets of the whole society will increase by about 1.5 trillion yuan.
The citizenization of agricultural transfer population has effectively promoted consumption. First, the citizenization of agricultural transfer population has expanded consumer groups and increased consumer demand. When a rural resident is transformed into a citizen, the income level and consumption capacity will increase simultaneously. According to the current level, the consumption demand will increase by at least 13000 yuan per year. According to the current annual increase of 21 million urban population, the direct consumption demand of about 280 billion yuan can be increased every year, equivalent to 12.5% of the annual increment of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society. Second, the citizenization of agricultural transfer population has improved the consumption structure and promoted the upgrading of consumption. In 2020, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents will be 29.2% and 32.7% respectively. Compared with rural residents, the diversified consumption demand of agricultural transfer population for housing, durable goods and services has increased significantly. The improvement of urban living environment and the development of new business forms have also given birth to richer and diversified new consumption demand.
The citizenization of agricultural transfer population has significantly driven investment. First, it directly drives the growth of urban infrastructure investment. From 2012 to 2019, the annual investment in urban municipal public facilities construction increased from 1.5 trillion yuan to 2.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 31%. Second, drive the growth of housing construction investment. From 2012 to 2020, residential investment increased from 4.9 trillion yuan to 10.4 trillion yuan. The proportion of migrant workers buying houses in cities has increased from 0.6% to about 20%. Third, drive the growth of investment in urban public service facilities. Education, medical care, pension and nursery education are the primary public service needs of the citizenization of agricultural transfer population.
In the future, there is still much room for urbanization to grow. It is estimated that by 2035, the urban population will increase by about 150 million, and the agricultural transfer population is still the main force. At the same time, the expansion of settlement space will increase the willingness to settle, and the ability of big cities to absorb and carry the agricultural transfer population will be stronger. But city registered residence city has a gap between the city's registered residence and the urban population. The level of public services and quality of the non registered population in the city still has gaps, and gradually improve their public service level in the city, which implies huge domestic demand potential at both ends of consumption and investment.
How to give better play to the supporting role of the citizenization of agricultural transfer population in expanding domestic demand?
First, we should vigorously promote the reform of registered residence system. We will liberalize the settlement restrictions in cities with a permanent resident population of 3 million to 5 million in urban areas, and guide mega cities to liberalize the settlement restrictions in suburban areas according to local conditions. Streamline points settlement projects in mega cities, increase the proportion of points in residence, employment and social security payment years, and cancel the limit on the number of points settled.
Second, promote the deep integration of agricultural transferred population into cities. Implement targeted vocational skills training to improve the employment competitiveness of agricultural transfer population. We will promote urban basic public services to cover all urban permanent residents, and improve the security systems such as education, medical care, pension and housing. We will improve the housing market system and the housing security system and support the rational demand for owner occupied housing.
Third, improve the two-way flow mechanism of urban and rural labor force. We will improve the mechanism for realizing the "three rights" of agricultural transfer population in rural areas and improve their willingness and ability to settle in cities. We will formulate specific measures for the voluntary and paid withdrawal of agricultural transfer population from the "three rights" in rural areas according to law, so as to realize the right to go with people and bring funds into cities. Encourage all kinds of local talents who go out to return home to start businesses, encourage conditional collective economic organizations to be moderately open to foreign populations, and promote two-way flow and get their own places.
Fourth, strengthen the role of urban agglomeration, the core power source of metropolitan area and the important carrier of county. We will comprehensively promote the integration of infrastructure, social security and social governance in urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, and give better play to the role of absorbing the transferred population from agriculture. Meet the needs of farmers to find jobs and settle down in the county, and make up for the shortcomings of municipal public facilities, public service facilities and industrial supporting facilities in the county.
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